2024 Butterfield Bermuda Championship Course Preview

The Butterfield Bermuda Championship is a relatively new addition to the Fall swing that debuted in October 2019 and has been held at Port Royal Golf Course for the last five years. Originally constructed to be an alternate event opposite the WGC – HSBC Championship, the tournament was elevated in 2021 to a standalone event as the result of successive cancellations of the WGC due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In my opinion, it holds a strong case as the overall weakest tournament on the entire PGA Tour schedule, and it rarely ever attracts any big-name players. Spoiler alert: 2024 is no different and I would expect Seamus Power or Mackenzie Hughes to open as the tournament favorite come Monday morning. With that being said, a strong case could be made that weeks like these with terrible fields smack dab in the middle of football season present the most opportunity for those of us who are willing to do the legwork. While I certainly agree with this sentiment in general and have found a lot of prior success in the Fall swing, this specific tournament offers very little predictive value. Not only is it heavily dependent on putting, but uncertainty around wind conditions have also contributed to a slew of confusing outcomes at the Butterfield. Brendon Todd won the inaugural event here at 100/1 after missing three of his last four cuts. Brian Gay won in 2020 at 220/1 coming off four straight missed cuts! Lucas Herbert won in 2021 at 80/1 coming off back-to-back missed cuts. Seamus Power broke the trend in 2022, winning as one of the tournament favorites at 22/1, but his odds were completely based on pedigree. This was the worst field of the season, and Power had still failed to finish top-20 in his last eight starts. Another spoiler alert: There will certainly be players with major question marks at the top of the odds board this year, and that by no means makes them a good bet. 2023 saw a return to form with Camilo Villegas triumphing at 125/1, yet in fairness, he was coming off a runner-up finish in his direct prior start in Mexico. Yet he was still 125/1 because Villegas had spent the last year on the Korn Ferry Tour not even playing good golf. Villegas was hovering around a 50% made cut percentage on the Korn Ferry Tour with just one top-10 result all season. He caught lightning in a bottle for eight rounds and then went back to being a deeply unserious professional golfer. Since winning the Butterfield last year, Villegas has failed to finish in the top 30 in 24 PGA Tour starts.

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